The challenge of global hunger is getting increasingly serious with every passing year, and unfortunately the number of people suffering from global hunger is seeing a surge again. The Covid-19 pandemic has transformed the issue into a problem where we might experience acute global food shortages in the near future. These food shortages in turn will cause a rise in food prices.

Covid-19 has made a drastic impact on the global economy and global food chain. It has caused more than 600,000 deaths all around the world, including 55 countries that are suffering from serious food shortage and insecurity. According to an estimate, more than 135 million humans need immediate humanitarian food and nutrition assistance. The food harvests in 2020 were better than the last year but transport restrictions imposed to control Covid-19 is badly affecting the world food supply chain. Since transport restrictions have increased delivery times, it has also decreased the availability of all kinds of food items. This situation can prove to be deadly for households which are completely dependent on food production and livestock rearing. Therefore, any disruption in the supply chain of agricultural inputs or the inability to access livestock markets will likely cause declines in crop and livestock production and sales.

African governments have started to close their national borders. The effect of closing borders will be destructive as it can disrupt livestock migration routes in countries where crop and livestock is already affected by the desert locust outbreak. Moreover, the movement restrictions could limit the availability of agricultural labor which can contribute more to rising food prices.

In addition to that, protectionism policies such as tariffs and export bans implemented by countries can increase food prices. Food prices can rise in countries like Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan, the Syrian Arab Republic and Yemen whose currencies are already depreciating due to Covid-19 induced recession. Food prices can further rise due to halt in imports in countries which are dependent on food imports.

How much food prices are rising

It is a big challenge to gather real time data about the increase in the international food prices. Fortunately, FAO has created an effective tool to analyze food chains affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. This tool utilizes the raw data related to 14 food items provided by Numbeo, a cost-of-living comparison website. The report compiled by the FAO shows that Covid-19 will not have a major impact on global food prices. However, it is expected to put an upward pressure on food prices in some third world countries like  Bangladesh, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Pakistan, Rwanda, and Tanzania. This report has used food related data over the 2.5-month period from 14 February (pre-pandemic) to 30 April. 

The average change noted by this tool was a 6.4% increase in price with every country showing a price increase for at least eight of the 14 foods examined (apples, bananas, bread, cheese, eggs, lettuce, beef, chicken, onions, oranges, potatoes, milk, rice, and tomatoes). The largest average price increases were observed in Rwanda (23.5%), Tanzania (12%), and Mozambique (10%). Moreover, the smallest prices increase were observed in Nigeria and Bangladesh (under 2%). 

Perishable nutrient-dense products such cheese and chicken witnessed a large average increase in price (13% and 9%, respectively). However other food items such as eggs and milk saw only small price changes (3.5% and 2%, respectively). 

World powers and powerful institutions must act fast to secure the livelihoods of the most vulnerable people in order to protect the critical food supply chain. The above-mentioned actions must be taken according to the guidelines set by development, humanitarian organizations and governments. These three players should work in coordination with each other. Moreover, these three players must devise a real time system to monitor food security and its chain. In addition to that, this system should have the ability to provide up-to-date information on the impacts of the outbreak on food security and livelihoods, health, access to services, markets and supply chains. This up-to-date information will help them to take early action and mitigation.

Governments and humanitarian institutions must devise more resilient food systems that have the capability to cope with the next drought, flood or plague. Governments and humanitarian agencies must make an investment in agricultural research for improving yields, develop drought-resistant crops, early warning systems, and promote sustainable farming methods. These actions have the ability to strengthen the demand for locally produced food through improving transport, refrigeration and local food processing capacity.

By Ammad Qureshi